We’ve now hit the metaphorical halfway mark of the National Football League season and somewhat surprisingly there are still five teams that have undefeated records to this point. The New England Patriots became the first team to crack the 7-0 mark with their decimation of the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night and the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers will look to join them at that mark (as Denver and Green Bay play each other on Sunday night, however, one will be eliminated). So who has the best chance at finishing off the regular season undefeated as the Patriots did in 2007?
As mentioned above, one of those teams will be eliminated on Sunday night (and that will be one of our picks, so we’ll get to that later). A year removed from winning their division with a losing record (7-8-1), the Panthers are a long shot to finish the season clean as, even this late into the season, QB Cam Newton is still getting acquainted with much of his wide receiver corps. At one point this season – perhaps when Green Bay visits on November 8 or when the Panthers visit Dallas on Thanksgiving Day in their fourth game in 18 days – the Panthers will get tripped up.
Some may see Cincinnati as a good candidate, but that isn’t true. At this point, the only team close in the AFC North is Pittsburgh and they are 2½ games behind the Bengals in the standings. If Cincinnati were able to sew up the division crown by the beginning of December – a good possibility as their next three games are on the road against Pittsburgh this Sunday and two home games against Cleveland and Houston – they would probably want to give some players a rest and likely lose a game before the playoffs would begin. November 22 is also a key date as they have to travel to play a tough Arizona team in Phoenix.
That leaves us with (ugh) the Patriots. Tom Brady has entered “Fuck You” mode again and is punishing teams and, by extension, the NFL for how they treated him and the Pats at the end of last season. Nothing would make Brady happier than running the table again (remember, they came up just short of perfection in 2007 when they lost the Super Bowl to the New York Giants) and this time completing the deal, just to see the look on Commissioner Roger Goodell’s face as he hands him the Lombardi Trophy again. Key dates for the Pats would be in back-to-back games at Denver on November 29 and at home against Philadelphia the following weekend.
I wouldn’t exactly rush out and put a bet on the Patriots running the table again (you know, if you’re in an area where you can legally do that), but you never know. This weekend’s games, however, have some pretty good value in them.
(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)
San Francisco 49ers (+8) vs. ST. LOUIS RAMS; UNDER 39
As inept as the 49ers have looked over…well, the entire season, they aren’t this bad a team that they can’t play a close game against the lowly Rams. They have won two of the last three meetings against the Rams and both teams are mired at the bottom in total offense in the NFL. Usually a close game dominated by the running games will be under 40 points (the teams have averaged 36 points per game combined over the last three) so we’ll take the points and go with the UNDER here.
Seattle Seahawks vs. DALLAS COWBOYS (+5); UNDER 41
Cowboys WR Dez Bryant is looking like he will give this game a go, which would benefit backup QB Matt Cassel tremendously (no word on when Tony Romo will be back under center for the ‘Boys). The Seahawks aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home in the Northwest, where the ‘Pokes beat them last year 30-23. Both team’s defenses are in the Top Ten in the NFL, which is going to keep the score down and keep the Cowboys in the game until the end. There is a possibility that the Cowboys could win this outright.
Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. DENVER BRONCOS; OVER 45.5
One of these teams will leave Sunday night’s game with the first blemish on their record this season. I would normally take Denver with QB Peyton Manning all day in this game, but the Broncos aren’t exactly the Broncos of the last two seasons. They have scraped by in some ugly games, Manning’s not exactly the howitzer now that he has been in the past and there is a serious lack of a rushing game (a Denver team ranked 31st in rushing? Say it ain’t so…). With mild conditions expected in the Rocky Mountains on Sunday night (temps in the mid-60s, light winds), I believe that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will take the Pack home from Denver early Monday morning as an undefeated team with a shot at also running the table and going 16-0.
Week 6 Results: 3-3
It was one of those “meh” efforts during Week 6 (I took my “bye” week for Week 7) with the Dolphins crushing Tennessee in their first game under new head coach Dan Campbell (two losses), the Bears covering the spread against Detroit in a game with no defense (1-1) and dead on picked the Steelers to cover against the Cardinals in Pittsburgh (two wins). .500 weekends don’t do a damn thing for you, however; looking to get back on the right side of the ledger this week.