Week 1 2016 NFL Predictions: Welcome Back, My Friends, To The Show That Never Ends…

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Although it has gotten to the point where it really doesn’t ever go out of season, the National Football League will kick off its 2016 season on Thursday night. That Thursday night game, which has become somewhat of a tradition in the last decade, is a special one as it features the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos taking on the team they beat in Super Bowl 50, the Carolina Panthers, in the Mile High City. With hope, it can wash away what has been another ugly offseason for the preeminent sporting organization in the intergalactic realm (we have to go there since the WWE now has a Universal Champion).

As soon as the confetti stopped falling from the sky at the conclusion of Super Bowl 50, the news for the NFL has been pretty bad. The reigning Most Valuable Player in the league, the Panthers’ Cam Newton, basically started the poo-poo platter of embarrassment in his sullen demeanor following the loss (you want to feel bad about something, Cam? Feel bad about the way you shafted your teammates and didn’t go all-out on that fumble when the game was on the line). He then doubled down on those actions by saying in his season-ending interview with the Charlotte media “show me a good loser and I’ll show you a loser.”

That was at least as a result of the actions on the field. It became apparent that the NFL still doesn’t have a grasp on the domestic violence situation. Former Dallas Cowboys’ defensive lineman Greg Hardy – who was paid quite handsomely last year after having his 10-game suspension reduced to four games, then laying the proverbial turd in a punchbowl with his play – lamented to ESPN’s Adam Schefter (who has become a joke as a reporter) that he was being punished and that he never hit a woman (this despite photos to the contrary). It seems fitting that, as of this moment, he is still looking for a team.

One player who isn’t, however, is New York Giants kicker Josh Brown. After receiving a slap on the wrist one-game suspension from the NFL from a domestic violence issue with his (now) ex-wife in 2015 that was later dropped, Brown was not only embraced by the Giants but re-signed to a new contract by the Giants management. Add in the substance abuse suspensions (including Johnny Manziel, now out of the NFL and looking to make a comeback; the Cleveland BrownsJosh Gordon and the Pittsburgh SteelersMartavis Bryant) and penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct (we’re looking at you, Cincinnati Bengals’ Vontaze Burfict), and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has to be glad the season is starting.

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But Goodell at least got that criminal Tom Brady! After initially suspending Brady last year – and having that suspension overturned by the courts – the NFL and Goodell went up the appeals ladder and found a court that reinstated the four-game suspension against the New England Patriots quarterback for his part in the “Deflategate” scandal. Brady, after pausing to think about a push to the U. S. Supreme Court for a decision, decided to drop his case and take the four-game suspension, ensuring that the Pats won’t have him for the start of the year (after that, however, look out…Brady will play with a vengeance).

Thank God the season’s starting…

Like last year, I’m going to make some picks. I didn’t do badly over the course of the 2015-16 NFL season, going 56-39-5 overall. Super Bowl 50 helped to drag that down a bit as I only went 1-2 (picked the Broncos and took the points, only to see them win outright), but missed on the “straight up” pick of the Panthers and missed terribly on the “over/under” of 44 (the final score was Broncos 24, Panthers 10). Despite the problems with the actual results from the game, I nailed six prop bets on the Super Bowl, pretty good by anyone’s standards.

As we get ready to head into the new season, remember, these are for entertainment only. If you’re locale allows for, you know, sports betting, then you can do what you want. By no means should you bet on sports outside of those areas! (OK, someone has to come up with a sarcasm font!) Without further ado, here we go into the season (and we already have some results for this season, thanks to college football).

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

Minnesota Vikings vs. TENNESSEE TITANS (+2.5)

The Vikings were a trendy pick this year to actually make some noise in the NFC, but that was before QB Teddy Bridgewater’s knee exploded like the Space X rocket last week. The Vikings front office has shored up the quarterback position by making a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles for QB Sam Bradford, but he hasn’t exactly had repetitions under his belt in the Vikings offense, let alone getting used to meeting his new teammates. One teammate he should get acquainted with really quick is RB Adrian Peterson, who might be in his last year of productivity and would like to see something to hang his career on.

The Titans could be one of the surprises in the AFC this year. After an up-and-down rookie year, QB Marcus Mariota is beginning to grasp the concepts of playing quarterback in the NFL and the team has actually put some firepower around him. One of the big pickups in the off-season was the Titans getting RB DeMarco Murray, back after a year wandering in the wilderness of Chip Kelly’s offense in Philadelphia. A reenergized Murray – and an even more overlooked pickup in WR Andre Johnson – and the current Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry could present problems for many teams.

A road team…without their starting quarterback…and the oddsmakers are favoring them? Seems as though the sharps may need a preseason of their own to get things right.

Green Bay Packers vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+5.5)

It would be easy to pick the Pack on this one – QB Aaron Rodgers has probably got his offense at its healthiest to start a season in years – but they’re stepping up in this game against a sneaky Jags team that has quietly built up a decent offensive effort. By catching up to what has been an underrated defense, the Jags should be much more competitive this year. I don’t expect the Jaguars to win this game, but I do expect them to keep it within the spread.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys; UNDER 46.5
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+6) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Here’s a great example of how much the line can swing when just one player is in the mix. Prior to Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo being injured, the Pokes were a 3.5 favorite over the Gotham Giants in their home opener. Now, with rookie Dak Prescott at the helm and Mark Sanchez (now with his fourth team in four years) backing him up, the line swung 4.5 points to the Giants. Regardless of who is playing for either team, they aren’t going to ring up points on the scoreboard, so take the UNDER.

In the second game, the game was a “Pick ‘Em” even after the suspension of Brady was announced. Then came down the four-game suspension of Patriots LB Rob Ninkovich (the quarterback of the defense, essentially), which probably shouldn’t swing the line by a touchdown but did. Any team that has Bill “Dark Hoodie” Belichick as head coach, however, isn’t going to go down by more than a touchdown, thus I’m taking the Pats.

Last week:  3-0
2016 season overall:  3-0

Amid the furor of the start of college football last week, made three picks that came home strong for me. Took Western Kentucky (-16.5) against Rice and won, then made a dual pick of Tulane (+16) and that the Tulane/Wake Forest game would be under the 43 O/U (WAY under as it turned out…the two teams only scored 10 points). While we will concentrate on the NFL the rest of the season, decided to lop these three picks in to get off to a good start!

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NFL Week 13 Predictions: IF The Playoffs Started Today…

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We’re reaching crunch time of the National Football League season. Technically no one has been eliminated from the playoff race as of yet – even the Tennessee Titans at 2-9 still have a mathematical shot at a Wild Card spot, one that could come through if everyone else passed out in front of them and couldn’t complete the season – but the top of the standings are beginning to get a bit clearer. If the playoffs started today, it is clear that the paths to the conference championships will go through Foxboro and Charlotte.

American Football Conference

Even though they were knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten in a stunning game against Denver last week, the New England Patriots have a comfortable schedule coming up. A home game against Philadelphia, a road trek against an improving Houston Texans squad, a home game against Tennessee and a roadie with the New York Jets will take them through the remainder of the month, with one win guaranteeing them the AFC East title. If they are able to sweep those four games (which will be tough with the team roster looking like a MASH unit), they should lock up home field for the playoffs.

After the Pats, the Denver Broncos and the Cincinnati Bengals are fighting it out for the two slot. The key game here will be on December 28 when the two teams meet in the Rocky Mountains. Both teams have similar schedules down the stretch, so the winner of this game is probably going to be your second seed and the loser the third seed. The final division winner will come down between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston, who play on December 20; your winner in that game wins the division.

As far as the Wild Cards I’d love to take the Jets, but they have a brutal stretch of games (New York Giants, Tennessee, at Dallas and New England over the next four weeks) so I have to count them out. Likewise for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have back to back games at Cincy and at home against Denver. I see the Kansas City Chiefs and the loser of the Indianapolis/Houston game on December 20 getting the Wild Card bids.

National Football Conference

Basically running away and hiding from the division, the Carolina Panthers are the lone undefeated team left in the NFL, one year removed from winning the NFC South with a losing record (7-8-1). They have a two game edge over the Arizona Cardinals for the top slot in the NFC, but there is some concern that the Panthers may not drive to the end of the season. With their next win, the Panthers will win the division crown to lock up their playoff slot (which could occur today) and some rest might be in order.

The Cardinals have their own concerns for the second slot on the ladder. The Minnesota Vikings are lurking one game back at 8-3 and will probably decide the second slot when they play this Thursday night in the Desert. Whoever comes out the winner in that game will take the second seed in the conference. The final slot will come out of the NFC East, which is a cesspool. Right now, the Washington Redskins (yes, that team) has somehow worked its way into the lead. Although they are tied with the Giants right now and only a game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles, the ‘Skins have the easiest trek the remainder of the way; let’s give the East to Washington because whomever it is coming out with that title will lose to the Wild Card team they play.

One of the Wild Card slots is firmly determined. The Green Bay Packers might be a sneaky and dangerous team if they can get in through the Wild Card (and, at 8-4, still have a shot at the division crown). Whoever doesn’t win the NFC North will be one of the Wild Cards. The second slot will come down between two dangerous teams, the Atlanta Falcons and the defending two-time NFC champion Seattle Seahawks. Of those two teams, Seattle has the easiest schedule (the Falcons still have the Panthers twice on their board), so put in the dangerous ‘Hawks as the sixth seed.

We’ve still got a month of the season remaining, so this situation will be in flux. Right now, let’s take a look at this week’s games and some of the options you might have on the board (you know, if you’re in an area where you can legally bet the games!).

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3); OVER 45

These two teams will play each other twice over the next five weeks and it could determine the playoff fortunes for one of the squads. The Raiders are building a young, strong offense behind QB Derek Carr, RB Latavius Murray and WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Chiefs may have a way to shut down the Silver and Black, however, with the 10th ranked defense in the NFL.

You have to be able to score, however. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has watched as his weapons have dropped away during the season, first RB Jamaal Charles and then RB Charcandrick West. Add in the factor that TE Travis Kelce is nursing some injuries and I don’t see how the Chiefs can mount any offensive attack against the Raiders, who definitely aren’t being shown any respect with their home game.

New York Jets vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5); UNDER 46.5

Both teams in this game need the win to keep the embers of a chance at the playoffs alive. The Giants also still have the potential of winning the NFC East in their sights and winning this game would keep them in that mix. The odd thing about this game is that it started out as a “pick ‘em” and has swung those 2.5 points in just a few days; I don’t see why that has come about.

To be fair, QB Eli Manning has been doing it with smoke and mirrors for the last couple of years in reality, but it is something that he’s become used to. The Giant defense has been stout but will face some challenges from the Jets passing game and especially WR Brandon Marshall. It will definitely be a slugfest and, with the Giant fans holding the “home team” edge for this game, I see them willing the Gotham City Giants to a slim win over their housemates in the Meadowlands.

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) vs. WASHINGTON REDSKINS; UNDER 41.5

Sure, I know that QB Tony Romo was absolutely crushed by the Panthers defense on Thanksgiving Day and is done for the year. I also know that the ‘Pokes will have had 11 days to prepare QB Matt Cassel for this game, which might be the closest the Cowboys will get to anything with a playoff feel in 2015. Add in the fact that the ‘Skins now have the burden of playing as the favorite – instead of the underdog role that they relish – and I see Dallas pulling off a major upset here, just to make the NFC East a bit more convoluted.

Week 11:  1-4-1
Overall:  32-24-3

Not going to lie to you, after the performance in Week 11, it was best that I took a week off on Week 12. When your analysis of the action isn’t exactly working, it is best to step away from the fray for a spell until you’ve righted the chakras. This week, the chakras seem to be aligned and things should get back on track.

NFL Week 10 Predictions: Always Beware the Half-Point

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For those that watch the National Football League closely, one of the things that is often looked at, after the injury report, is the lines on the games (you know, if you can legally do that type of thing where you’re at). The information, for the most part, is pretty straightforward, but there is those times when the sharps hedge their bets and put a mysterious “.5” on the end of their point spreads. Whereas a rookie bettor may not keep an eye on this, an experienced player always is wary of that half-point.

You will usually see that half-point come up in the OVER/UNDER numbers, but it is something that can occasionally have an impact on the spread. For example, one of this weekend’s big games is the New England Patriots heading to the Big Apple to take on the New York Giants. At this time, the Pats are a 7.5 point favorite over the G-Men and that half-point makes a huge difference because a touchdown victory in the game still means that, as a bettor, you’ll lose your bet. In many NFL games, a touchdown in difference is not uncommon, similar to that of a three-or-four point difference in score. When you see a 3.5 or 4.5 point spread in that it (like the 7.5 point spread), that means the sharps are hedging a bit on what could be one of the common outcomes of a football score.

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

Miami Dolphins (+6) vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES; OVER 50

It has been a close race to see which division in the NFL will replicate what the NFC South did in its 2014 of futility. If you’ll recall, last year the Carolina Panthers finished the season at 7-8-1 (a losing record) but were the South champions and, as such, hosted a playoff game. There are two divisions this year that are looking to repeat that dubious distinction.

One of them is the Eagles who, at 4-4, are in the thick of the division title chase in the NFC East (they wouldn’t even be in second in any other division except the pitiful AFC South, where they would actually lead the Indianapolis Colts (4-4)). Only a half-game behind the Giants and a game up on the Washington Redskins, the Eagles know pretty much their only shot at the playoffs will be winning the East. While some might not think these inter-conference games mean anything, they do go on the record and a loss by the Eagles here would be potentially disastrous to their dreams.

The Dolphins have been showing signs of life under new Head Coach Dan Campbell, going 2-2 since canning Joe Philbin back in October. Averaging 25.5 points per game since the coaching change, QB Ryan Tannehill has been showing some of the skills that were seen when he was drafted and RB Lamar Miller has been thundering out of the backfield. The Dolphins may not win this game, but they will keep it close in a shootout with the Eagles.

Dallas Cowboys vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+1); OVER 43.5

This is honestly one of the tougher games to pick on the Week 10 schedule. The Cowboys, in the midst of a six game losing streak, are looking for a victim to right their ship. Unfortunately, their ship is sailing at the Buccaneers, who have been impressive and maddening and sometimes in the same game. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has stated that, once QB Tony Romo is ready to return to action, then Head Coach Jason Garrett will put him back on the field with no concern whether the ‘Pokes can make the playoffs or not. That seems to be about par for explaining the inanity of the Cowboys’ season.

No matter who has been under center since Romo’s injury, the ‘Boys have had difficulties. First with Brandon Weeden and then Matt Cassel, the Cowboys offense has sputtered, averaging only18.8 points per game. The Bucs have shown the ability to surprise, defeating the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago, as rookie QB Jameis Winston becomes more accustom to the NFL game.

I find it a bit surprising that the Cowboys are favored in this game. While there have been some close calls over their six game skid, the ‘Boys don’t seem to be completely behind Cassel, seemingly biding their time until Romo makes his return. When the spread is this close, I normally lean towards the home team. Watch out for that half-point on the OVER/UNDER, as we discussed above; a 23-20 game will be exciting, but it will also be a loser if you pick the OVER (we believe this will be a shootout).

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS (-4.5); UNDER 47.5

This is a great bet, but it won’t be a great game to watch. Both teams are going to slog it out, especially the Ravens after the season-ending injury to WR Steve Smith. Ravens QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett both have been carrying the load for the team and, coming off a big win over the San Diego Chargers last weekend, are looking to get a win streak going with their second home game in a row (and the midpoint of a three-game home stand).

Jacksonville may be turning a corner, but the finish of that turn isn’t going to be this weekend. At 2-6, they still have a shot at AFC South division title (the Colts, 4-5, lead). They barely average 20 points per game, however, and have a veritable “who’s that?” making up the offense with QB Blake Bortles (believe it or not, Bortles is second on the team in rushing (178 yards) behind RB T. J. Yelden (470 yards on the season)).

Note the half-point on both the spread and the O/U…the sharps don’t even have a solid feel for what will occur. Normally this is a game that you’d want to stay away from, but I see some good value in it with a good Ravens team, comfortable at home, handling their business against a not-so-good road team in the Jags.

Last Week:  3-3 Overall:  28-17-2

For the third consecutive week, a .500 record. To be able to make ANYTHING out of sports betting, you have to at least win two of three bets (.667). If you’re winning at a 70% clip, that is outstanding. If you’re winning at a 50% rate, you are actually losing; the juice will eventually eat a bankroll without some winning weekends. Although the overall is ahead of that 50% rate (59.6%, to be exact), that isn’t hitting the optimum two-thirds level a sports bettor would like. Looking to get back to that level and a good Week 10 would help in that effort.

NFL Week 8 Picks: Will Anyone Go Undefeated?

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We’ve now hit the metaphorical halfway mark of the National Football League season and somewhat surprisingly there are still five teams that have undefeated records to this point. The New England Patriots became the first team to crack the 7-0 mark with their decimation of the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night and the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers will look to join them at that mark (as Denver and Green Bay play each other on Sunday night, however, one will be eliminated). So who has the best chance at finishing off the regular season undefeated as the Patriots did in 2007?

As mentioned above, one of those teams will be eliminated on Sunday night (and that will be one of our picks, so we’ll get to that later). A year removed from winning their division with a losing record (7-8-1), the Panthers are a long shot to finish the season clean as, even this late into the season, QB Cam Newton is still getting acquainted with much of his wide receiver corps. At one point this season – perhaps when Green Bay visits on November 8 or when the Panthers visit Dallas on Thanksgiving Day in their fourth game in 18 days – the Panthers will get tripped up.

Some may see Cincinnati as a good candidate, but that isn’t true. At this point, the only team close in the AFC North is Pittsburgh and they are 2½ games behind the Bengals in the standings. If Cincinnati were able to sew up the division crown by the beginning of December – a good possibility as their next three games are on the road against Pittsburgh this Sunday and two home games against Cleveland and Houston – they would probably want to give some players a rest and likely lose a game before the playoffs would begin. November 22 is also a key date as they have to travel to play a tough Arizona team in Phoenix.

That leaves us with (ugh) the Patriots. Tom Brady has entered “Fuck You” mode again and is punishing teams and, by extension, the NFL for how they treated him and the Pats at the end of last season. Nothing would make Brady happier than running the table again (remember, they came up just short of perfection in 2007 when they lost the Super Bowl to the New York Giants) and this time completing the deal, just to see the look on Commissioner Roger Goodell’s face as he hands him the Lombardi Trophy again. Key dates for the Pats would be in back-to-back games at Denver on November 29 and at home against Philadelphia the following weekend.

I wouldn’t exactly rush out and put a bet on the Patriots running the table again (you know, if you’re in an area where you can legally do that), but you never know. This weekend’s games, however, have some pretty good value in them.

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

San Francisco 49ers (+8) vs. ST. LOUIS RAMS; UNDER 39

As inept as the 49ers have looked over…well, the entire season, they aren’t this bad a team that they can’t play a close game against the lowly Rams. They have won two of the last three meetings against the Rams and both teams are mired at the bottom in total offense in the NFL. Usually a close game dominated by the running games will be under 40 points (the teams have averaged 36 points per game combined over the last three) so we’ll take the points and go with the UNDER here.

Seattle Seahawks vs. DALLAS COWBOYS (+5); UNDER 41

Cowboys WR Dez Bryant is looking like he will give this game a go, which would benefit backup QB Matt Cassel tremendously (no word on when Tony Romo will be back under center for the ‘Boys). The Seahawks aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home in the Northwest, where the ‘Pokes beat them last year 30-23. Both team’s defenses are in the Top Ten in the NFL, which is going to keep the score down and keep the Cowboys in the game until the end. There is a possibility that the Cowboys could win this outright.

Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. DENVER BRONCOS; OVER 45.5

One of these teams will leave Sunday night’s game with the first blemish on their record this season. I would normally take Denver with QB Peyton Manning all day in this game, but the Broncos aren’t exactly the Broncos of the last two seasons. They have scraped by in some ugly games, Manning’s not exactly the howitzer now that he has been in the past and there is a serious lack of a rushing game (a Denver team ranked 31st in rushing? Say it ain’t so…). With mild conditions expected in the Rocky Mountains on Sunday night (temps in the mid-60s, light winds), I believe that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will take the Pack home from Denver early Monday morning as an undefeated team with a shot at also running the table and going 16-0.

Week 6 Results:  3-3
Overall:  22-11-2

It was one of those “meh” efforts during Week 6 (I took my “bye” week for Week 7) with the Dolphins crushing Tennessee in their first game under new head coach Dan Campbell (two losses), the Bears covering the spread against Detroit in a game with no defense (1-1) and dead on picked the Steelers to cover against the Cardinals in Pittsburgh (two wins). .500 weekends don’t do a damn thing for you, however; looking to get back on the right side of the ledger this week.

NFL Week 5 Picks: Some Weeks Betting ISN’T A Good Idea

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We’ve past the quarter pole in the 16-game race in the National Football League and there have been a few things established to this point. Don’t bet against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots; the NFC East is wide open, with three teams at .500 and the fourth only a game behind them; there is no dominant team in the NFC yet, and there are some weeks you shouldn’t be betting the games (you know, if wagering on sporting events is legal in your area)!

There are several games on today’s schedule that have seen big swings in their opening lines or have such a wide spread it is difficult to decide which end of the game to take. For example, the Buffalo/Tennessee game started out with the visiting Bills the favorite, giving up three points to the Titans and rookie Marcus Mariota. Then injuries to Bills RBs LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams were announced and the line swung all the way over to a “pick ‘em” game.

Another good example is the New England/Dallas game. With the Patriots giving up nine points and on the road, the thought might be to take the Cowboys. With the ‘Boys’ depleted resources after the injuries to QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant and the continued lackluster performance of backup QB Brandon Weeden and the rest of the ‘Pokes, however, maybe the sharps got this one right.

Normally it is a good idea to sit out weekends like this, but there are a couple of nice opportunities out there. Coming off a nice Week 4 performance, looking to continue the run.

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

Chicago Bears (+9) vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS; UNDER 45

Neither of these teams has shown themselves to be an offensive juggernaut, especially the Bears with the injuries they’ve had. Both are “run first” oriented offenses that look to establish their big stars, Bears RB Matt Forte and Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles, and both have solid defenses that will look to stuff those running games. As such, it’s going to be a low-scoring affair and closer than the nine points that the Chiefs are giving up. Especially with QB Jay Cutler back under center, take the Bears and the under for a nice pickup.

Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS; OVER 43.5

Even though Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the game, I still like the Seahawks on the road in Cincy. QB Russell Wilson has plenty of other options to work with, including TE Jimmy Graham and WR Doug Baldwin, and should be able to put up some numbers against the Bengal D. The “Legion of Boom” looks like it is returning to form after the comeback of DB Kam Chancellor, also. With both teams combined averaging over 50 points per game, the OVER is also a good pick here.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. DETROIT LIONS; OVER 46

Even though they burned me last weekend (more on that in a bit), I am going to take the road-favorite Cardinals in this game. Averaging 37 points per game, the Cardinals are coming off a shocking loss to the St. Louis Rams and looking to take their frustrations out on someone. Their victim this week, the Lions, have yet to win a game and, even with WR Calvin Johnson and QB Matthew Stafford, are only averaging 14 points per game this year. It could get ugly quickly in the Motor City, not only in this game but also in the front offices of the Lions over the next couple of weeks; to say that Lions head coach Jim Caldwell’s seat is a little warm would be a huge understatement.

Last week:  4-1 Overall:  14-8-1

The only thing that kept me from a 5-0 weekend were those previously mentioned Cardinals. Although we got the O/U right in that Cardinal/Ram game, the stunning straight up upset out of the Rams knocked off the 7-point favorite Arizona. That was the only blemish on what was otherwise a really good weekend.

NFL Week 3 Picks: Injuries, Bad Starts Having Huge Impact on Games

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There are two things that are having a huge impact on the betting of the games for the National Football League this weekend (you know, if you’re in a location that allows for that type of thing). First off is the number of organizations that are sitting at 0-2, normally an indicator that there are problems for a team. In the AFC, there are three teams that have dropped their first two tilts (surprisingly the Indianapolis Colts are in this boat with the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans) and, in the NFC, five (a sixth, the New York Giants, pulled out of the ranks of the New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles and the surprise team, the Seattle Seahawks, with their win on Thursday night over Washington).

The reason for the concern about these teams making the playoffs? In the last 25 years, there have been 125 teams that have started the season 0-2. Of that massive group, only three of them have been able to reach the playoffs and the last one, the San Diego Chargers, did it in 1998. As you can see, there is some reason for concern among the fan bases of these teams if not the locker room and the front office. A third loss by these teams may mean an early end to their hopes for at the minimum making the playoffs.

The second thing that is affecting games at this early mark of the season is injuries. Three star quarterbacks will be on the bench for their team’s games on Sunday, uncommon in this day and age of protecting the quarterback at all costs. Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo will be gone for at least the next eight weeks; the Bears will be without the services of Jay Cutler and Saints QB Drew Brees will miss his first game ever during his tenure with the team this weekend. With two of those teams without their star wide receivers also (the Bears without Alshon Jeffery and the Cowboys without Dez Bryant), it is difficult to take those teams in their upcoming games…but it isn’t impossible.

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. DALLAS COWBOYS; UNDER 44

These two teams come into the game holding 2-0 records. Not surprisingly, the game was a pick’em when the lines opened up following the Week 2 games. For it to have only swung one point on the board (the O/U has stayed constant) indicates that the sharps thought this one was going to be a close one from the start.

Without both Romo and Bryant, I don’t see how the Cowboys can do anything in this game offensively. Backup QB Brandon Weeden has lost his last eight starts (no victories since 2012) and the Falcon defense will be jamming the line to cut off the running lanes for RBs Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar. Even TE Jason Witten and WR Terrance Williams will have difficulty getting anything going without Romo around. IF – and that’s a mighty big IF – the Cowboy defense performs over its head, the ‘Boys may steal this one…but I’m not expecting it.

Chicago Bears vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14); OVER 43.5

What if you were the team that suffered perhaps the WORST loss in Super Bowl history only seven months ago? What if you came out of the gate with one of the star members of your “Legion of Boom” defense holding out for more money and your star QB happily sitting on his pile of cash while the team stunk up the joint in two road games? Wouldn’t you be a little upset? That’s going to be the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday and it isn’t going to be pretty for whoever faces them.

That task, alas, goes to a Chicago Bears team that is also 0-2 but has no good mojo going for its side. Both QB Cutler and WR Jeffery are going to be at least sitting on the sidelines for the game (if not sitting back in the Windy City) and their backups aren’t exactly going to frighten anyone. QB Jimmy Clausen has exactly 11 starts in the NFL under his belt, while WR Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson have been battling nagging injuries of their own. While RB Matt Forte is averaging 101 yards per game rushing, he isn’t going to be seeing those holes with the “Legion of Boom” back in force.

New Orleans Saints vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-8); UNDER 43.5

The Saints weren’t exactly setting the world on fire in their first two games this season, a loss at Arizona (nothing to be embarrassed about) and at home to Tampa Bay (led by rookie QB Jameis Winston). Their rushing game is nonexistent, with neither RB Mark Ingram nor Khiry Robinson having 100 total yards rushing two games into the season. Brees was doing his usual, averaging 305 passing yards per game, but he’s going to be the one counseling backup QB Luke McCown on what to do against the Panthers D this weekend.

This isn’t going to be a shootout, though, as some of the games have been in the past. In their previous two games, the Panthers have gone UNDER in both games (29 total points against Jacksonville, 41 against Houston). QB Cam Newton is doing just enough to get the job done, an amazing feat considering he’s still introducing himself to some of the wide outs on the team. If all else fails, however, Newton can chuck the ball to TE Greg Olson or hand it off to RB Jonathan Stewart. Those are pretty good safety valves to have on your side.

Last Week:  4-1
Overall:  8-3-1

If it wasn’t for the factor that the New England Patriots beat the O/U on their own against the Buffalo Bills last week (the line was 44 and we went UNDER; the Pats racked up 48), we would have been able to book a perfect weekend. Those weekends are few and far between in the betting world – it would have been nice to rack up one of those already for the 2015 season. Maybe this will be the week we can put a zero in the loss column.

NFL Week 2 Picks: Abnormalities Leave Bettors Wanting More Info

NFLLogo

The first week of the National Football League season is in the books and there are plenty of unanswered questions that leave those that wager on the games (you know, if you’re in an area where you can LEGALLY place a bet) in a difficult spot. Are the New York Jets THAT good that they laid 31 on the Cleveland Browns (let’s be honest, after Browns QB Josh McCown was knocked out of the game with a concussion, ushering in Johnny Manziel to show again why he shouldn’t be playing quarterback in the NFL)? Have the years finally caught up with Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning (I think I’ve seen mannequins move better and have more zip on the ball than Peyton has in the first two games)? Has New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin finally lost his mind?

The first four weeks of an NFL season are really a feeling out process. You have to be able to crunch the information from all the teams, figure in for those “weird” games when the outcome should have been different (we’re looking at you, Kansas City Chiefs) and make a solid decision on limited information. Some of the matchups this weekend that I’ve decided to offer a pick with seem to be gift wrapped from the bookies, though.

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

New England Patriots (+1) vs. BUFFALO BILLS; UNDER 44

Inter-division games are always a tough pick because they usually are a rivalry game. With the AFC East, every other team in the division considers the Patriots an “arch rival” while the Patriots wonder what these teams are talking about; the Pats have won the division title in 11 of the past 13 years, not exactly something that rivalries are made of. If there’s a game with head coaches Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan involved in it, however, there is going to be some heat in the game.

The Patriots utilized the usual suspects on offense – QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski and RB Shane Vereen – to effectively whip the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 and, with 10 days to rest up for the Bills, I don’t see how they’re going to lose this one. I’ve also got to question just how good the Jets’ defense is. They had a great game against the Browns, but that was after the injury to McCown sent Manziel into the game to turn the ball over to them twice. I’d like to see them stand up against a team that doesn’t lose their starting quarterback in the first game.

This is going to be a bit of a slugfest, though. I don’t see the two teams scoring more than 44 points, hence I’ll take the UNDER there. As to the game, you’re giving me Brady AND a point? I’ll take it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. OAKLAND RAIDERS (+6.5)

The Ravens looked anemic against Denver last Sunday night. No running game to speak of and, without that, QB Joe Flacco’s play-action passing game has a bit of a problem getting started up. Still, there are more concerns about this team, whom many thought might be challenging for another trip to the playoffs.

The Raiders…what can you say about the boys by the Bay? QB Derek Carr went down early in the action with an injury (he is expected to start on Sunday) and the Silver and Black never even got the engines started in losing to the Bengals. I don’t expect the Raiders to win this game but I do expect them to make it much more competitive than Week 1 (even the Raiders have some pride to their game). That 6.5 points is just a bit too juicy to pass up, so let’s see if the Raiders have some resolve and come back strong.

Seattle Seahawks vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3), UNDER 49

Seattle was shocked in Week 1 in going on the road and losing to the St. Louis Rams in a game that the ‘Hawks had to scramble to get back into (Seattle outscored the Rams 18-7 in the fourth quarter) before losing in overtime. It isn’t clear if DB Kam Chancellor’s contract holdout is causing issues to their once vaunted defense, it isn’t clear if QB Russell Wilson’s big new contract has satiated his drive, it isn’t clear if RB Marshawn Lynch is just having issues, period. What is clear is that the Seahawks can ill-afford to go to 0-2 on the season, especially giving up a game to a team that may be a divisional champion.

The Packers seem to keep plugging in players to maintain the smooth running of the ship. After losing WR Jordy Nelson to a knee injury in pre-season, all they did was go and get James Jones back on the roster. All James would do is light up the Chicago Bears defense for two TDs (James had six for the Raiders in 2014) in their victory. Alongside fellow WR Randall Cobb, QB Aaron Rodgers has plenty of options on the offensive end of the ball (hey, we didn’t even talk about RB Eddie Lacy).

The Packers are nearly unbeatable at home and they are looking for some revenge after losing to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game to close last season. Look for them to cover the spread, but it’s going to be something along the lines of 21-17 or 17-13 on Sunday night.

CURRENT RECORD:  4-2-1

Not a bad week overall for Week 1. Could have been better if the Patriots had not given up the late TD to the Steelers in the opener (that was the push on the board with the Pats -7) and there had been a real game between the Browns and Jets. Then again, Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s fourth quarter heroics did save our OVER bet (the 27-26 final went over 51.5), so maybe we shouldn’t complain.

It promises to be another interesting week in the NFL. Over the next couple of weeks, some trends will begin to emerge and players can begin to use them accordingly.