Week 8 2016 NFL Predictions: Bet the Money Line or the Spread?

nfllogo

As we’re getting into the heart of the 2016 National Football League season, we’ve kind of hit a lull. There’s been enough games played that we’ve gotten a feel for which teams are doing well, but we’re still too far away from the playoffs to get excited about anyone or about any games. With this in mind, let’s spend some time taking about wagering on the NFL and something that any experienced sports bettor will get asked about frequently…how do you bet the games?

There are many ways to bet an NFL game. You can strictly look at it as one entity, betting the entire game and its outcome. You can also bet the first and/or second halves individually, usually getting some derivative of what the line is split evenly. But the best way I’ve found to not only hedge some bets but also get a little more than your investment paid back is in whether to bet the money line or bet against the spread.

Betting against the spread allows you to show your knowledge of the teams and the game. For example, let’s say that the New England Patriots are a six-point favorite over the Buffalo Bills (the line this week is Pats -5.5, but I digress). If you’ve studied the teams, trends and situations that demonstrate that the game will be within that spread, then you could bet the Bills and, if they lose 23-20, then you win their bet because they were getting a six-point cushion to work with. By losing by only three points, the Bills are a winner for you!

When you bet the money line, you’re looking for the best return on your bet. You’ve seen those bets with a “plus” or a “minus” in front of them? This is the money line, where you can make some nice coin if you’re able to catch the right side of the line. If you see, for example, “+130” with a team, that means you would have to bet $100 to win $130 (or, if you make a little wager online, $1 to win $1.30). If you see “-170,” that means you’d have to bet $170 to win $100. If you can catch the underdog often enough, it can be profitable.

Unfortunately, we’re not going with too many dogs this weekend (only one). We’ve also got to get caught up on the season to date. It’s not as good as it should be at the halfway mark, but we’re working on it!

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

New York Jets (-3) vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS

If there was ever a time to catch the Cleveland Browns, it is right now. The only team in the NFL that has yet to win a game, they aren’t going to be winning one this week. If the Jets didn’t have RB Matt Forte or WR Brandon Marshall and the on again/off again starter QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (now “on” again and for the remainder of the season with QB Geno Smith done for the year), they STILL would have their defense to thwart the hapless Browns. Look for this game to be won by the Jets by at least a touchdown, if not more.

Oakland Raiders (Pick ‘em) vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS; OVER 49

This promises to be a shootout as both teams are lacking defense. The Raiders are going to get the nod in this game, however, because of the availability of more weapons for QB Derek Carr to utilize in WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and RB Latavius Murray. On the opposite side of the ball, QB Jameis Winston is trying to make do with a fill in with RB Jacquizz Rodgers (an adequate replacement for injured Doug Martin) and only having WR Mike Evans (WR Vincent Jackson is done for the year). Looking at those lineups, you’ve got to give the edge to the Silver and Black. The defenses aren’t anything to write home about, especially the 32nd ranked Raider D so, if this goes 41-38, don’t be surprised.

carsonwentz

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) vs. DALLAS COWBOYS

This is a tricky game to call, the battle of the rookie quarterbacks. It’s a battle of an outstanding defense (the fifth ranked Eagles) against an excellent offense (the third ranked Cowboys). It is also a battle for first place in the NFC East, which usually brings out the best in both teams.

While QB Dak Prescott has been a diamond in the rough for the ‘Boys, QB Carson Wentz is leading the Emerald Birds very well in his inaugural season. I can see this coming down to a defensive fight, which favors the Eagles in the long haul. They may not win the game outright, but I could see a 24-23 outcome with the Eagles covering the spread.

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) vs. CHICAGO BEARS

How anyone can pick the Bears to do anything positive of late is unexplainable. With QB Jay Cutler or without him (he’s been out the last few games), the offense has been woefully incompetent and, rumor has it, the Bears will release Cutler at the end of the season (as far as this game, it is expected Cutler will start). The former “Monsters of the Midway,” the defense of the Bears, is also a shell of itself.

The Vikings were the last undefeated team left in the NFL until last week, when the Eagles handed them their first loss on the road. Don’t expect a second one in this game. In fact, it could be a boring affair on Monday night as the Vikings look to bury their division rival Bears.

Week 4:  2-3
Week 7:  4-1
2016 Season Overall:  14-13-1

Yes, you’ll see that there are a couple of weeks off in the middle. After Week 4 – my third consecutive losing weekend of the NFL season – I decided to take a couple of weeks off to recharge the batteries. It is an important lesson that, if you are on a bad streak, you must step away and perhaps review what approach you’re taking. You might not find any missteps along the way, but the review is always helpful.

Either way, the last two weeks work out to 6-4. Not a great comeback but, hopefully, we’ve turned a corner for the season.

tossingmoney

Advertisements

Week 2 2016 NFL Predictions: Don’t Fall for the Overreactions

nfllogo

The first week of the National Football League season is in the books and what do we know? That’s the question that all the sports channels, whether they are on television, internet or radio, are trying to tell you. The problematic thing is that NO ONE knows anything about the NFL season at this point; to say that you KNOW anything after one week of playing either means you’ve got great insight into one team and/or you are out there breaking the legs of the players so that their season is over!

Consider this tidbit of information. Last week, the Jimmy Garoppolo-led New England Patriots went into the desert in Arizona and everyone thought they were going to be thrashed, especially after it was learned that TE Rob Gronkowski was also going to miss the game. The line was +6 and the Pats went out and blew it away, winning outright over the Cardinals.

Fast forward to this week. One of the Patriots’ arch rivals, the Miami Dolphins, are coming to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro on Sunday. The Dolphins have just come off a tough road trip to Seattle, where they put their own hurt on the Legion of Boom before falling at the end 12-10. Do you think that the ‘Fins get any love for that effort? No, they are currently a -6.5 dog to the Pats.

This is what I mean when I say you shouldn’t fall for the overreactions. It is typical that it will happen in the early part of the season (personally have always believed that they shouldn’t do a college football ranking until at least the third week of the season – then you actually know who is a contender or a pretender…are you listening Florida State?) because…well, that’s what the talking heads are paid to do…talk. Look at the Bills on Thursday night, who started off as a -3 favorite against the Jets. By the time the game started, the line had swung over to the Jets being the favorite and giving a point.

Injuries can also explain some of the swings, but it shouldn’t be that much especially if there is a quality backup. Cleveland Browns QB Robert Griffin III went down in Week 1 with a shoulder injury that has put him on the IR. Enter Josh McCown, who has been a serviceable backup/starter with NINE NFL franchises, tossed 73 TDs in his career and generally will have earned his NFL pension by the time he hangs it up. To put it bluntly, McCown isn’t a dewy-eyed rookie and there’s no reason that their opponent this week, the Baltimore Ravens, should have moved from a -4 favorite to a -6 favorite, especially with the game being played in Cleveland.

The best thing to remember is don’t fall for the overreactions. Go through your usual research and impartially analyze the information at hand. That will keep you from making ill-advised bets on the whims of the overreactions.

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Cardinals did not look like the same team that made the Final Four in the NFL last year. Perhaps it is another year of age on QB Carson Palmer and WR Larry Fitzgerald, perhaps it was a defense that wasn’t ready for the Patriots. They certainly are going to have to improve on all aspects of the game (their second straight at home) if they are going to have an impact on the Bucs.

jameiswinston

Tampa Bay is much like the Cardinals except younger. QB Jameis Winston, RB Doug Martin and WR Mike Evans are coming together nicely and the defense, long the stalwart of the team, now doesn’t feel like it has to win every game. If the Buccaneers O-line can do the same job it did in Week 1, it could be another long afternoon for the Redbirds.

Atlanta Falcons vs. OAKLAND RAIDERS (-4.5)

Again, we have a team that didn’t look very good playing at home last week (ironically against the Buccaneers) that is going to the West Coast. The Falcons are solid with QB Matt Ryan and RB Devonta Freeman, it is the defense that needs the work. Giving up four touchdown passes to Winston – who isn’t known as the second coming of Dan Fouts – is something that should have embarrassed the Dirty Birds.

It’s not going to get any easier for the Falcon defensive backs as they get another young stud of a quarterback in Derek Carr. With an arsenal that includes WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and RB Latavius Murray, Carr can basically pick apart nearly any defense. The Raider D is once again a formidable force, which should give the not-very-mobile Ryan some issues. The bookies aren’t giving any respect to the Silver and Black and they may regret it.

Green Bay Packers (-2) vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS; OVER 43.5

The Packers impress me this year that they will do just enough to get the job done and little more. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, they didn’t cover the spread but did pull out a four-point win. This is a very similar game in that the Pack doesn’t have to wow anyone, they just have to go in and pull out the victory. With veteran QB Aaron Rodgers, that shouldn’t be a problem with the array of talent behind him.

The Vikings…ah, what could have been. Although they went south last week and beat the Tennessee Titans, the team didn’t look like the powerhouse it would have been with QB Teddy Bridgewater (out for the season – knee injury) under center. The Vikings might be a surprise and get into the playoffs with a wild card, but they’re not going to beat the Pack in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. CHICAGO BEARS

The Eagles were a bit of a surprise in Week 1 with their rookie QB Carson Wentz, but it was a win over the Browns (predicted to win four games this year). The test will come when they go on the road, many said…but they didn’t expect the Bears to be this dismal, never seriously in the game against the Houston Texans on the road last week. These aren’t the old “Monsters of the Midway” and the offense is QB Jay Cutler and whomever they can find to put around him. The Eagles should come out of this game with a 2-0 record, but I’ll settle for covering the three-point spread.

Last Week:  3-1-1
2016 Season Overall:  6-1-1

tossingmoney

The Titans failing to cover the spread against the Vikings (Tennessee +2.5, lost 25-16) and the push by the New York Giants over the Dallas Cowboys (Giants -1, won 20-19) were the only blemishes on what was otherwise a pretty good week (and good for you if you found the Giants in a “pick ‘em” as some odds makers had it). If you can go 3 for 5 (with one push) over the course of a season, you’re going to do pretty well. Let’s see if this week holds up to the scrutiny.

NFL Week 6 Picks: Trends Aren’t Necessarily Something to Follow

NFLLogo

In the National Football League, there are some trends that occur in betting that amateurs usually get caught up in (you know, if you’re in an area where you can legally place a bet on a sporting event). Everyone loves to take a team coming off a bye week, figuring that the extra rest will have recharged the batteries of the squad and have them fresh for the first game back from the bye. As of 2013, teams coming off the bye week won 53.4% both straight up and against the spread, not as much as you might think.

One trend that does have some legs for some reason is the West Coast team traveling to the East Coast for a game. According to a study in 2013, since 2005 a West Coast team that traversed the continent to play on the East Coast had a record of 44.57 against the spread, a winning percentage of .436. If the teams were traveling to the Central Time Zone, they also had a horrible win rate against the spread, 37-44 (.457). Going to the Mountain Zone, the West Coast team was a bit better off, going 22-10 (.688).

While the average person might say “AHA!” and run with this, you still have to do the math. The West Coast teams are the Oakland Raiders (putrid for much of the last decade), San Diego Chargers (42-38 over the past five years), San Francisco 49ers (three outstanding seasons between 2011-13 with an 8-8 slate in 2014 and a 6-10 record in 2010 and dismal results prior to 2010) and the Seattle Seahawks (23-41 between 2008-11, 36-12 between 2012-14). As you can see, the teams who make up the “West Coast” franchises have had long stages where they weren’t exactly the best team to be making a difficult trek across the country to play the games. Basically, whenever you see someone spouting about a “trend” that always has to be followed, you have to put your own analysis to the test before you jump off the diving board.

This week in the NFL is a tough one, with several games that could go either way. There are some good choices, however, if you’re brave enough to take the risk (home team in CAPS, pick in bold).

Arizona Cardinals vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+4); UNDER 45

Here’s an example of one of those trends that has actually been scientifically proven. When a dome team goes to play an outdoor team in conditions where the temperatures are around 40 degrees, the dome team only wins the game about 20% of the time. The forecast for Heinz Field in the Steel City on Sunday is for temps to hover around 44 degrees with a gusty wind knocking the chill down to 39 degrees. Although Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald has some experience playing in these conditions (he played college ball for the University of Pittsburgh), the Cardinals are that dome team that will have problems with outdoor games.

I also like the Steelers in this game because they seem to have figured out that running the ball with RBs Le’veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams might be a good way to operate the offense while QB Ben Roethlisberger is out and Michael Vick (still dangerous, by the way) is under the center. If the Steelers are able to control the pace of this game, they’ll stay close to the Cardinals and keep it under 45 total points for the game.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. DETROIT LIONS; UNDER 44

This is the game that will be on the NFL Sunday Ticket bar televisions in Hell. Both teams are downright ugly and it is stunning as to why. The Lions aren’t exactly bereft of talent with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson, but they are the only team in the NFL so far this season without a win. The Bears have had some injury issues, but that doesn’t explain why they are averaging slightly more than 17 points per game and seemingly have begun the “fire sale” to gut the team and rebuild for the future. The Bears have shown that, on occasion, they can stop an opposing offense, thus I’ll take the former “Monsters of the Midway” and go UNDER in what will be a torturous affair.

Miami Dolphins vs. TENNESSEE TITANS (-2); UNDER 43.5

After their game two weeks ago in the United Kingdom, the Dolphins fired head coach Joe Philbin. Whenever you are firing your coach four games into the season, that isn’t going to bode well as to your chances for the remainder of the year.

Still, we see a couple of the “trend” theories playing out here. The line originally opened at Titans (-3), so that has closed up a bit (perhaps because of the “bye week” trend?) and the O/U was set at 45.5. It’s now dropped to 43.5 as some weather conditions have arisen that could cause some issues for the teams (“warm weather” team playing in bad conditions?). The Titans are going to bring a good game against the ‘Fins, with the Titans averaging 25 points per game and QB Marcus Mariota looking very solid behind center, thus they get the pick.

Last Week:  5-0-1
Overall:  19-8-2

SO CLOSE to perfection last week! The only pick missed – and technically not missed but a push – was the Seahawks losing to the Cincinnati Bengals by three, the exact spread of the game. This week’s going to be a bit tougher to fade, but we’ll see what happens.

NFL Week 2 Picks: Abnormalities Leave Bettors Wanting More Info

NFLLogo

The first week of the National Football League season is in the books and there are plenty of unanswered questions that leave those that wager on the games (you know, if you’re in an area where you can LEGALLY place a bet) in a difficult spot. Are the New York Jets THAT good that they laid 31 on the Cleveland Browns (let’s be honest, after Browns QB Josh McCown was knocked out of the game with a concussion, ushering in Johnny Manziel to show again why he shouldn’t be playing quarterback in the NFL)? Have the years finally caught up with Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning (I think I’ve seen mannequins move better and have more zip on the ball than Peyton has in the first two games)? Has New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin finally lost his mind?

The first four weeks of an NFL season are really a feeling out process. You have to be able to crunch the information from all the teams, figure in for those “weird” games when the outcome should have been different (we’re looking at you, Kansas City Chiefs) and make a solid decision on limited information. Some of the matchups this weekend that I’ve decided to offer a pick with seem to be gift wrapped from the bookies, though.

(Home team in CAPS, pick in bold)

New England Patriots (+1) vs. BUFFALO BILLS; UNDER 44

Inter-division games are always a tough pick because they usually are a rivalry game. With the AFC East, every other team in the division considers the Patriots an “arch rival” while the Patriots wonder what these teams are talking about; the Pats have won the division title in 11 of the past 13 years, not exactly something that rivalries are made of. If there’s a game with head coaches Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan involved in it, however, there is going to be some heat in the game.

The Patriots utilized the usual suspects on offense – QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski and RB Shane Vereen – to effectively whip the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 and, with 10 days to rest up for the Bills, I don’t see how they’re going to lose this one. I’ve also got to question just how good the Jets’ defense is. They had a great game against the Browns, but that was after the injury to McCown sent Manziel into the game to turn the ball over to them twice. I’d like to see them stand up against a team that doesn’t lose their starting quarterback in the first game.

This is going to be a bit of a slugfest, though. I don’t see the two teams scoring more than 44 points, hence I’ll take the UNDER there. As to the game, you’re giving me Brady AND a point? I’ll take it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. OAKLAND RAIDERS (+6.5)

The Ravens looked anemic against Denver last Sunday night. No running game to speak of and, without that, QB Joe Flacco’s play-action passing game has a bit of a problem getting started up. Still, there are more concerns about this team, whom many thought might be challenging for another trip to the playoffs.

The Raiders…what can you say about the boys by the Bay? QB Derek Carr went down early in the action with an injury (he is expected to start on Sunday) and the Silver and Black never even got the engines started in losing to the Bengals. I don’t expect the Raiders to win this game but I do expect them to make it much more competitive than Week 1 (even the Raiders have some pride to their game). That 6.5 points is just a bit too juicy to pass up, so let’s see if the Raiders have some resolve and come back strong.

Seattle Seahawks vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3), UNDER 49

Seattle was shocked in Week 1 in going on the road and losing to the St. Louis Rams in a game that the ‘Hawks had to scramble to get back into (Seattle outscored the Rams 18-7 in the fourth quarter) before losing in overtime. It isn’t clear if DB Kam Chancellor’s contract holdout is causing issues to their once vaunted defense, it isn’t clear if QB Russell Wilson’s big new contract has satiated his drive, it isn’t clear if RB Marshawn Lynch is just having issues, period. What is clear is that the Seahawks can ill-afford to go to 0-2 on the season, especially giving up a game to a team that may be a divisional champion.

The Packers seem to keep plugging in players to maintain the smooth running of the ship. After losing WR Jordy Nelson to a knee injury in pre-season, all they did was go and get James Jones back on the roster. All James would do is light up the Chicago Bears defense for two TDs (James had six for the Raiders in 2014) in their victory. Alongside fellow WR Randall Cobb, QB Aaron Rodgers has plenty of options on the offensive end of the ball (hey, we didn’t even talk about RB Eddie Lacy).

The Packers are nearly unbeatable at home and they are looking for some revenge after losing to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game to close last season. Look for them to cover the spread, but it’s going to be something along the lines of 21-17 or 17-13 on Sunday night.

CURRENT RECORD:  4-2-1

Not a bad week overall for Week 1. Could have been better if the Patriots had not given up the late TD to the Steelers in the opener (that was the push on the board with the Pats -7) and there had been a real game between the Browns and Jets. Then again, Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s fourth quarter heroics did save our OVER bet (the 27-26 final went over 51.5), so maybe we shouldn’t complain.

It promises to be another interesting week in the NFL. Over the next couple of weeks, some trends will begin to emerge and players can begin to use them accordingly.